Americans have unrealistic expectations for a COVID-19 vaccine
- Written by Matt Motta, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Oklahoma State University
Many Americans appear to be experiencing cautious[1] optimism[2] about the role that vaccines could play in ending the pandemic. But recent public opinion research suggests that 29%[3] to 37%[4] of Americans plan to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine.
According to some[5] epidemiological[6] estimates[7], as many as three-fourths of Americans must become immune to COVID-19 – either by recovering from the disease or by getting vaccinated – to halt the virus’s spread[8]. As a scholar[9] who studies vaccine hesitancy, I ask how Americans’ vaccine-related expectations might influence their willingness to vaccinate. What attributes do Americans expect a COVID-19 vaccine to have, and will they be less likely to get vaccinated if the vaccine they have the opportunity to take defies some of their preferences?
In a new peer-reviewed study[10], I found that the vaccine Americans most prefer may not reflect the choices we actually have. Americans are most likely to intend to vaccinate when a vaccine is made in the U.S., administered in a single dose, over 90% effective and carrying a less than 1 in 100 chance of experiencing minor side effects, and has spent just over a year in development.
However, even under these ideal conditions, the likelihood that the average respondent in the study would choose to vaccinate is just 68%. This implies that many Americans may refuse vaccination, even when a vaccine satisfies their expectations.
Alex Wong via Getty Images[11]Why do some Americans plan to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine?
Since Pfizer[12] and Moderna[13] vaccines gained emergency use authorization, front-line health care workers and other vulnerable groups have started[14] to receive the vaccine.
Public opinion research[15], however, has documented substantial COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. While intentions to vaccinate[16] have[17] rebounded[18] in recent weeks[19] following a substantial drop-off[20] this past summer[21], some recent estimates suggest that more than a third[22] of Americans plan to forgo vaccination. Refusal rates that high could jeopardize our ability to achieve population immunity, and thereby prolong the pandemic.
References
- ^ cautious (www.forbes.com)
- ^ optimism (www.cbsnews.com)
- ^ 29% (www.kff.org)
- ^ 37% (news.gallup.com)
- ^ some (doi.org)
- ^ epidemiological (www.statnews.com)
- ^ estimates (khn.org)
- ^ spread (www.cbsnews.com)
- ^ scholar (scholar.google.com)
- ^ peer-reviewed study (doi.org)
- ^ Alex Wong via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ Pfizer (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Moderna (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ started (www.bbc.com)
- ^ research (theconversation.com)
- ^ vaccinate (news.gallup.com)
- ^ have (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ rebounded (www.kff.org)
- ^ recent weeks (news.gallup.com)
- ^ drop-off (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ this past summer (news.gallup.com)
- ^ more than a third (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ CC BY (creativecommons.org)
- ^ academic (doi.org)
- ^ public opinion (www.kff.org)
- ^ also (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ politically (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ contentious (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ reflect disagreements (www.electionanalysis.ws)
- ^ politicians (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ fstop123 via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ new peer-reviewed study (doi.org)
- ^ conjoint experimental design (www.qualtrics.com)
- ^ some leading (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ More than half (www.vox.com)
- ^ Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines (www.statnews.com)
- ^ closer to 70% effectiveness (www.bbc.com)
- ^ The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a new science newsletter (theconversation.com)
Authors: Matt Motta, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Oklahoma State University
Read more https://theconversation.com/americans-have-unrealistic-expectations-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-152745