East is East, West is West − and Turkey is looking to forge its own BRICS path between the two
- Written by Jorge Heine, Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University
Turkey tends to march to its own drum in international affairs.
Take the United Nations vote on Dec. 14, 2022[1], when the body’s General Assembly approved a resolution in favor of a New International Economic Order. Some 123 member states – largely the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America – voted in favor; only 50 cast a ballot against. Turkey was the only abstention[2] – emblematic of the foreign policy of a country that strides the divide between Europe and Asia, East and West, North and South.
Or consider the most recent expansion of the NATO military alliance: Turkey held back its support[3] for the entry of Sweden for nearly two years, much to the chagrin of fellow members.
It was nonetheless a remarkable moment when Turkey formally announced in September 2024 that it was applying to join the BRICS Plus[4] group – the first time a NATO member country has requested membership in a club born in 2006 out of dissatisfaction with Western-dominated global governance mechanisms and that has since expanded from its original lineup of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
With NATO being the bulwark of the Western alliance, and BRICS seen as a key challenger to that established order, this is no minor matter – especially in a year in which BRICS is chaired by Russia, currently at war with Ukraine, and at a time when NATO members are scrambling to support Ukraine in whichever way they can.
The move by Ankara, which the United States has by now decided to live with[5], suggests Turkey is increasingly wary about achieving its foreign policy goals primarily through the West’s institutions.
Between two worlds?
Turkey’s interest in joining BRICS does not come out of the blue. As far back as 2018[6], after being invited to attend that year’s BRICS annual summit meeting, Turkey had been toying with the idea of doing so. Looking back, it was only a question of time for full membership to happen.
Straddling the European and Asian continents, Turkey has long been attracted to the European Union, the world’s largest single market and a key Western institution, and has made repeated attempts to join[7] the body during the 21-year rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yet, the EU has been adamant[8] that it is not ready to accept it as a full member.
Trade agreements? Yes. Military cooperation through NATO? No problem. But full membership that grants voting rights in the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament? Nope, not yet.
With a population of over 85 million[9], Turkey would be the largest country in the EU if it joined – surpassing Germany, with about 84 million[10] – and would thus play a key role in its governance and leadership.
Yet amid a surge of Arab and African migration[11] to Europe – and a concomitant rise in anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment[12] – European acceptance of a nonwhite, Muslim-majority nation in its midst seems less likely than ever.
As has been apparent in the contrasting reactions to the war in Ukraine and to the one in Gaza[13], many Europeans have come to define the continent as “white and Christian[14].” They see Europe as under siege[15] from the rest of what it considers to be an uncivilized world.
This notion has been reinforced by the rise of the far right[16] in recent European elections and is even reflected in some of the rhetoric coming out of senior policymakers in Brussels. The European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell, for example, said in a 2022 speech to young European diplomats[17]: “Europe is a garden. We have built a garden, where everything works,” but “most of the rest of the world is a jungle, and the jungle could invade the garden.” It was a comment for which he later apologized[18].
Looking beyond the West
In addition to facing a cold shoulder from the EU, Turkey also seemingly feels hampered by the broader Western-dominated global order. The Erdogan government blames the West, and especially the U.S., for holding back the growth of its defense sector, and its industry in general, and for not allowing the country to take the place it deserves in world affairs as a rising middle power.
For example, Turkey’s 2019 acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system led to a prolonged spat with the U.S.[19], which blocked Turkey from acquiring F-35 fighter jets as a result. And Washington only reluctantly gave the green light to Turkey’s purchase of 40 F-16 fighter jets[20] earlier this year, a transaction that met significant opposition in the U.S. Senate.
Beyond the differences with Western entities of various kinds, Turkey also has grievances about the existing global order. A particular pet peeve for Erdogan is the composition of the United Nations Security Council[21] and its five veto-wielding permanent members – the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia – something he feels does not reflect the geopolitical realities of the 21st century.
To be sure, Turkey has concluded that it will stick with NATO and continue to do much of its foreign trade with Europe, where its main export markets are. But in the wake of what some refer to as the Asian century[22], Turkey sees the world as moving in a different direction.
Joining BRICS would thus open new opportunities both on the economic and the diplomatic front. In fact, such a move would put Turkey in a key position as a diplomatic bridge between East and West, as well as between North and South, with a foot in each of these camps, while also bolstering its position in all.
“Turkey can become a strong, prosperous, prestigious and effective country if it improves its relations with the East and the West simultaneously,” Erdogan said in early September[23]. “Any method other than this will not benefit Turkey but will harm it.”
The evolution of BRICS
BRICS has come a long way from the days of its founding in 2006, when many commentators in the Western media dismissed[24] the organization as an entity that talked a good game but didn’t get much done.
It now has its own bank, the New Development Bank[25], based in Shanghai, with an initial capital allocation of US$50 billion, and whose performance in its first decade of existence has been well evaluated by credit agencies and the press. BRICS also has a Contingent Reserve Arrangement[26] to provide member states with protection against global liquidity pressures.
From the original four members – Brazil, Russia, India and China – to which South Africa was added in 2010, the group now has nine members. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined in 2024[28], while Saudi Arabia has mulled accepting the invitation it was extended at the BRICS summit held in Johannesburg in August 2023. Now dubbed “BRICS Plus,” the body represents 46% of the world’s population[29], 29% of the world’s GDP, 43% of oil production and 25% of global exports.
The BRICS economies clearly complement Turkey’s. Half of Turkey’s natural gas imports come from Russia, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative[30] aims to connect the world’s fastest-growing region, East Asia, with the world’s biggest single market, Europe, with Turkey positioned as a key distribution hub for the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.
A bigger platform
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the BRICS group would provide Turkey with a bigger diplomatic platform from which to air its demands and leverage its influence. This should not be surprising from a country that believes, as many others in the Global South[31], it has gotten a raw deal from the West and is keen to reform the existing order.
Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani famously argued that the Asian century started[32] on March 13, 2015 – the day a Conservative government in the U.K. applied to join the Beijing-based Asian Investment and Infrastructure Bank, defying the express wishes of Washington.
Without putting too fine a point on it, one could well argue that a page has been turned in the transition toward a less Western world when the first NATO member, in this case Turkey, applied to join BRICS.
References
- ^ United Nations vote on Dec. 14, 2022 (geopoliticaleconomy.com)
- ^ only abstention (press.un.org)
- ^ held back its support (www.reuters.com)
- ^ applying to join the BRICS Plus (www.bloomberg.com)
- ^ has by now decided to live with (www.dailysabah.com)
- ^ far back as 2018 (www.xinhuanet.com)
- ^ repeated attempts to join (www.euronews.com)
- ^ has been adamant (www.aljazeera.com)
- ^ over 85 million (data.tuik.gov.tr)
- ^ with about 84 million (www.destatis.de)
- ^ African migration (www.lemonde.fr)
- ^ anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment (www.euronews.com)
- ^ contrasting reactions to the war in Ukraine and to the one in Gaza (www.arabnews.com)
- ^ white and Christian (www.hurstpublishers.com)
- ^ under siege (www.lemonde.fr)
- ^ rise of the far right (www.wbur.org)
- ^ 2022 speech to young European diplomats (www.eeas.europa.eu)
- ^ he later apologized (www.euronews.com)
- ^ prolonged spat with the U.S. (www.cnn.com)
- ^ purchase of 40 F-16 fighter jets (thedefensepost.com)
- ^ composition of the United Nations Security Council (www.aa.com.tr)
- ^ the Asian century (www.weforum.org)
- ^ said in early September (www.bloomberg.com)
- ^ commentators in the Western media dismissed (www.cfr.org)
- ^ now has its own bank, the New Development Bank (onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
- ^ Contingent Reserve Arrangement (www.bu.edu)
- ^ Sefa Karacan/Anadolu via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ joined in 2024 (www.bloomberg.com)
- ^ represents 46% of the world’s population (www.economist.com)
- ^ Belt and Road Initiative (www.bbc.com)
- ^ the Global South (theconversation.com)
- ^ argued that the Asian century started (www.adb.org)
Authors: Jorge Heine, Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University
