Russia has been at war with Ukraine for years – in cyberspace

On Jan. 14, 2022, hackers that the Ukrainian government identified as Russian took over Ukrainian government websites and posted threatening messages. Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images^[14]

Russia has artfully employed cyber operations to project national power, particularly through its GRU military intelligence service. The phrase “instruments of national power^[15]” defines power as diplomatic, information, military and economic – all are mechanisms for influencing other countries or international organizations. Cyberspace is unique as a domain of warfare^[16] because cyber operations can be used in the service of all four instruments of national power.

Diplomatically, Russia has tried to shape international norms in cyberspace by influencing discussions on cyberspace norms and behaviors. In 2018, Russia introduced a resolution to the United Nations^[17] creating a working group with like-minded states to revisit and reinterpret the U.N.‘s rule for cyberspace, emphasizing that a state’s sovereignty should extend into cyberspace. Some analysts argue that Russia’s true goal is to legitimize its surveillance-state internet tactics^[18] in the guise of state sovereignty.

Economically, the Russian “NotPetya”^[19] attack crippled international ports, paralyzed corporations, disrupted supply chains and effectively stalled the global economy – all with a single piece of code.

In the information environment, Russia is especially adept at influencing and manipulating information^[20] to suit its strategic interests. For example, Russian efforts against the U.K. have targeted its relationship with NATO by using bots to spread false stories about British troops in Estonia during a NATO military exercise^[21] in 2017.

Notably, Russia has a pattern of pairing information with military operations as tools of national power. During previous military conflicts in eastern Ukraine^[22], the Russian military employed cyber capabilities to jam Ukrainian satellite, cellular and radio communications.

Overall, Russia sees warfare as a continuum^[23] that is ongoing with varying intensity across multiple fronts. Simply put, for Russia, war never stops and cyberspace is a key domain of its persistent conflict with Ukraine and the West.

Probing the US, hammering Ukraine

Russia has aimed its cyber operations at other nations, including the U.S. and Western European countries. Russia has targeted U.S. critical infrastructure^[24] and supply chains^[25], and conducted disinformation campaigns^[26]. U.S. officials are still investigating the extent of the recent SolarWinds^[27] cyberattack, for example, but they have determined that the attack compromised federal agencies, courts, numerous private companies and state and local governments. The Russian activities are aimed at undermining U.S. domestic and national security, democratic institutions and even public health efforts^[28].

But Russia is more destructive^[29] in its own backyard. Attacks on Estonia^[30] and Georgia^[31] illustrate how Russia can disrupt government functions and sow confusion as it prepares for military operations.

Most recently, Microsoft detected data wiping malware^[32] in Ukrainian government computer systems. Ukraine publicly named Moscow as the perpetrator^[33] and attributed the software designed to destroy data to Russian hackers. The presence of the malware marks an escalation of Russia’s current behavior toward Ukraine in cyberspace. The malware, if triggered, would have destroyed^[34] Ukrainian government records, disrupted online services and prevented the government from communicating with its citizens.

The ongoing aggression against Ukraine follows Russia’s pattern^[35] of waging cyberwar while publicly threatening and preparing for a military invasion. In many ways, for Ukrainians, the prospect of war and anticipating invasion have become normalized^[36].

Deadly consequences

Website defacement and data loss are not the only concerns for Ukraine as Russia continues to mass troops and equipment along its borders. In the winter of 2015-2016, Russia demonstrated its ability to hack Ukraine’s power grid^[37] in a first-of-its-kind attack that cut off power to thousands of Ukrainians. Temperatures in Kyiv^[38] in the winter hover around freezing during the day and become dangerously cold at night. Any loss of power could be deadly.

Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, is the bright spot at the top center of this photo taken from the International Space Station. Russia demonstrated its ability to knock out parts of Ukraine’s power grid in 2015. NASA, CC BY-NC^[39][40]

Similarly, cyberattacks could disrupt Ukraine’s economy and communications infrastructure. An attack on the financial sector could prevent Ukrainians from withdrawing money or accessing their bank accounts. An attack on the communications infrastructure could cripple the Ukrainian military and limit the country’s ability to defend itself. Civilians would also lose their means of communications and with it the ability to organize evacuations and coordinate resistance.

[Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world. Sign up today^[41].]

Ultimately, Russia is likely to continue to use cyber-enabled sabotage against Ukraine. Russian cyber operations over the past eight years hold three lessons to support this. First, cyberattacks that have costly physical effects, like knocking out the power grid, are destabilizing and can be used to erode the will of the Ukrainian people and counter their lean toward economic, military and political alliances with Europe and NATO. Second, cyberattacks that have a physical effect put Russian cyber capabilities on display and demonstrate their superiority over Ukrainian defenses. And third, Russia has done it before.

Authors: Maggie Smith, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, United States Military Academy West Point

Read more https://theconversation.com/russia-has-been-at-war-with-ukraine-for-years-in-cyberspace-176221

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