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How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?

  • Written by Toshi Hirabayashi, Associate Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?NASA's Webb telescope captured a photo of the asteroid 2024 YR4 from afar. European Space Agency via AP

I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high.

As defending Earth from unexpected intruders such as...

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