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Election polls are more accurate if they ask participants how others will vote

  • Written by Mirta Galesic, Professor of Human Social Dynamics, Santa Fe Institute; External Faculty, Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Associate Researcher, Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam
Election polls are more accurate if they ask participants how others will votePeople have information on how they'll vote, but also about how others in their community may vote.AP Photo/Wong Maye-E

Most public opinion polls correctly predicted the winning candidate in the 2020 U.S. presidential election – but on average, they overestimated the margin by which Democrat Joe Biden would beat Republican incumbent Donald...

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