Brazil’s Bolsonaro may soon join ranks of failed coup plotters held to account − hampering the chance of any political comeback
- Written by John Joseph Chin, Assistant Teaching Professor of Strategy and Technology, Carnegie Mellon University
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro could soon be convicted as a failed coup plotter[1].
Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to deliver a verdict by Sept. 12[2] over charges that the former president and key aides plotted to overturn[3] Bolsonaro’s 2022 election defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro and others discussed a scheme to assassinate Lula[4] and incited a riot on Jan. 8, 2023[5], in hopes that Brazil’s military would intervene and return Bolsonaro to power.
Bolsonaro maintains his innocence. But if found guilty, he could face a lengthy prison sentence[6].
As political scientists[7] who have documented[8] the fate of hundreds of coup leaders in the book “Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups D’état[9],” we have collected a dataset[10] of every coup attempt since the end of World War II. Bolsonaro could soon join the ranks of thousands of coup plotters who have been brought to justice.
But not all coup plotters are held accountable for their actions. And even when they are – it doesn’t necessarily mark the end of their political ambitions.
Coup and punishments
Plotting a coup is risky business. Some of those who attempt to seize or usurp power unconstitutionally are killed during their takeover bid, particularly when security forces loyal to the incumbent leader foil the attack. Christian Malanga[12], an exiled former army captain who led a violent attempt to seize power[13] in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is one such example. He was killed in the ensuing shootout in May 2024.
But most leaders of failed coups survive.
And although they typically face punishment, the severity of consequences varies greatly; it often depends on whether the attempt is a self-coup[14], which is a power grab by an incumbent leader, or an attempt to oust a sitting government.
The most common fate of failed self-coup leaders in democracies is impeachment and removal from office, as occurred to Indonesia’s Abdurrahman Wahid[15] in July 2001, Ecuador’s Lucio Gutiérrez[16] in April 2005, Peru’s Pedro Castillo[17] in December 2022, and South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol[18] in April 2025.
Some coup plotters and their co-conspirators are charged in a court and, if convicted, sent to prison. Malanga’s American co-conspirators were ultimately sentenced to life in prison[19] in April 2025.
A similar fate could befall Bolsonaro. A conviction in his case could mean 40 or more years in a Brazilian prison[20] for the 70-year-old.
Still, it could be worse – failed coupists are often punished outside of independent courts, where the penalty is often more severe. Coup plotters have been summarily executed or sentenced to death by a military tribunal or a “people’s court.” The longtime Zairean dictator Mobutu Sese Seko executed over a dozen junior officers[21] and civilians after his government uncovered an alleged coup plot in 1978.
One recent estimate suggests 40% of coup conspirators suffer relatively light punishment[22]. Many coup backers are simply demoted[23] or purged[24] from the government without facing trial or execution. An especially popular move is to send coup plotters into exile to discourage their supporters from mobilizing against the regime. Former Haitian president Dumarsais Estimé[25] was forced into exile after his self-coup attempt failed in May 1950; he died in the U.S. a few years later.
Punishment doesn’t always end threat
The problem facing governments is that failed putschists pose a lingering political threat. Ousted leaders often plot “counter-coups” to return to power. For example, former president of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos, after being ousted in the 1986 People Power movement, masterminded coup plots from exile[26], though he never returned to power.
Some succeed, such as David Dacko[27], who returned from exile to grab power in the Central African Republic in 1979, but only with the help of French forces.
Even when convicted or exiled, coup plotters may be later freed. Some members of Brazil’s Congress have already introduced a bill that could grant Bolsonaro amnesty[28].
A few former failed coup leaders manage to come to power later. Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings[29] led a failed coup in May 1979 but went on to seize power in subsequent coups in June 1979 and 1981; Hugo Chavez[30] was convicted and jailed for leading a failed coup in 1992 but ended up being elected president in Venezuela in 1998.
The risk of coupists going unpunished
Only one failed self-coup leader, as designated in our dataset[31], has managed to retain office – from where he worked, critics say, to successfully dismantle[32] democracy: El Salvador’s strongman[33], Nayib Bukele[34]. In February 2020, amid a standoff with the political opposition, Bukele threatened to dissolve the legislature, bringing with him armed soldiers to occupy the legislative assembly[35].
Though Bukele temporarily backed down, he faced no legal or political backlash. His party won a legislative supermajority in 2021, and he won reelection in 2024. Bukele’s ruling party recently lifted presidential term limits[36], allowing him to potentially rule for life[37].
The good news about punishing unsuccessful coup plotters is that because they’ve failed, they do not have to be coaxed out of power. Thus, holding them accountable for their actions should deter future plotters from attempting the same thing. In contrast, for a leader who has done unsavory things while still in office – such as killing domestic dissidents[38] or committing war crimes[39] – the threat of punishment[40] once they leave power can backfire[41] by giving them a reason to fight to stay in power[42].
In the long term, failed coup leaders who escape punishment are more likely to make a political comeback.
When defeated at the polls, both Donald Trump and Bolsonaro tried to overturn the official results. Both attempted to alter[43] vote[44] totals[45] after they had lost and[46] block[47] an election winner from being inaugurated.
But for Trump there was no censure or[48] punishment[49], and he is now back in power, where he has weakened[50] the checks and balances that we and other[51] political[52] scientists[53] see as crucial for the preservation of liberty[54] and growing economic prosperity[55].
In contrast, a conviction for Bolsonaro would make it unlikely he could follow the same path to political resurrection. Even if he’s eventually pardoned[56], a guilty verdict makes him ineligible[57] to compete again for Brazil’s presidency.
References
- ^ convicted as a failed coup plotter (www.npr.org)
- ^ by Sept. 12 (www.bbc.com)
- ^ plotted to overturn (goodauthority.org)
- ^ scheme to assassinate Lula (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ incited a riot on Jan. 8, 2023 (www.bbc.com)
- ^ a lengthy prison sentence (www.pbs.org)
- ^ political scientists (www.cmu.edu)
- ^ who have documented (polisci.la.psu.edu)
- ^ Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups D’état (www.bloomsbury.com)
- ^ dataset (www.johnjchin.com)
- ^ Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ Christian Malanga (www.bbc.com)
- ^ violent attempt to seize power (www.bbc.com)
- ^ a self-coup (theconversation.com)
- ^ Abdurrahman Wahid (www.degruyterbrill.com)
- ^ Lucio Gutiérrez (www.cbsnews.com)
- ^ Peru’s Pedro Castillo (www.cnn.com)
- ^ South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol (www.bbc.com)
- ^ life in prison (www.reuters.com)
- ^ 40 or more years in a Brazilian prison (www.bbc.com)
- ^ executed over a dozen junior officers (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ 40% of coup conspirators suffer relatively light punishment (doi.org)
- ^ simply demoted (doi.org)
- ^ or purged (doi.org)
- ^ Dumarsais Estimé (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ masterminded coup plots from exile (www.upi.com)
- ^ David Dacko (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ grant Bolsonaro amnesty (valorinternational.globo.com)
- ^ Jerry Rawlings (www.bbc.com)
- ^ Hugo Chavez (www.pbs.org)
- ^ designated in our dataset (www.johnjchin.com)
- ^ successfully dismantle (doi.org)
- ^ strongman (theconversation.com)
- ^ Nayib Bukele (www.journalofdemocracy.org)
- ^ soldiers to occupy the legislative assembly (www.npr.org)
- ^ lifted presidential term limits (apnews.com)
- ^ rule for life (www.economist.com)
- ^ killing domestic dissidents (www.dw.com)
- ^ committing war crimes (www.icc-cpi.int)
- ^ threat of punishment (www.jstor.org)
- ^ backfire (theconversation.com)
- ^ fight to stay in power (press.princeton.edu)
- ^ alter (www.politico.com)
- ^ vote (www.reuters.com)
- ^ totals (www.brennancenter.org)
- ^ and (www.factcheck.org)
- ^ block (history.stanford.edu)
- ^ there was no censure or (www.cnn.com)
- ^ punishment (www.ap.org)
- ^ weakened (theconversation.com)
- ^ other (www.cambridge.org)
- ^ political (heinonline.org)
- ^ scientists (www.tandfonline.com)
- ^ the preservation of liberty (guides.loc.gov)
- ^ growing economic prosperity (www.bu.edu)
- ^ eventually pardoned (valorinternational.globo.com)
- ^ ineligible (valorinternational.globo.com)
Authors: John Joseph Chin, Assistant Teaching Professor of Strategy and Technology, Carnegie Mellon University
