Voters in Arab American strongholds likely tipped Michigan in Trump’s favor
- Written by Michael Traugott, Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
President-elect Donald Trump won Michigan[1] in the 2024 election, an important prize in his decisive victory[2].
The state has earned its title as a swing state. After narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton[3] in Michigan in 2016, Trump lost the state[4] to President Joe Biden in 2020, and now Trump has narrowly won it again.
Michigan has the largest population of Arabs, Muslims and Palestinians[5] in the United States, currently numbering more than 200,000.
Back during the primary in February 2024, a group called Listen to Michigan[6] organized the uncommitted campaign in the state, promoting it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s support of Israel’s actions in its conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip[7].
More than 100,000 Michigan voters picked “uncommitted”[8] instead of Biden during the Democratic primary.
I am a Michigan-based political scientist who studies campaigns, elections and polling[9]. I was interested to see how that protest vote during the primary would carry over into the general election.
But let me first explain why such a small group of voters matters.
Recent voting patterns in Michigan
Michigan has been a swing state in the past three presidential elections, and each time the elections have been incredibly close.
In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by 10,674 votes out of almost 4.8 million cast – a razor-thin margin of just 0.23%. At the time, his success was attributed to the Clinton campaign’s lack of attention[10] to Michigan in terms of visits and advertising[11].
Biden learned from this in organizing his 2020 campaign, advertising more heavily and making more visits to the state[12] in what turned out to be a winning strategy.
But as he organized his 2024 reelection campaign, Biden faced the headwinds of low approval ratings[13], mostly brought on by lingering economic pain related to the COVID-19 shutdowns[14]. Although the unemployment rate had come down significantly[15] by 2023, consumers were still feeling the pinch.
Then on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas initiated a violent attack on Israel[16], and Biden expressed strong support for Benjamin Netanyahu[17] as the Israeli Prime Minister initiated an aggressive response in Gaza[18]. Even as the number of civilian casualties grew dramatically[19], Biden remained steadfast in his support.
Five months later, Michigan held its presidential primaries on Feb. 27.
The impact of the Middle East conflict
To protest the administration’s position, Arab Americans organized a national Uncommitted Movement[20].
Just over 100,000 uncommitted ballots were cast in Michigan’s 2024 Democratic primary – about 13.2% of the vote. The greatest number came from Wayne County, the most populous in the state and home to many Arab Americans living in Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck and the surrounding areas. In the previous three campaign cycles, about 2% of voters chose uncommitted.
Biden made no public effort to engage with Arab American leaders[21] in Wayne County before he withdrew from the contest, or after. The Kamala Harris campaign did some outreach[22] but mostly in private.
Leaders of some Arab American groups[23] advocated not voting for Harris because of the administration’s position on Gaza and Lebanon. Others suggested voting for third party candidates.
At the same time, Trump made multiple visits[24] to Arab American groups during the general election campaign. He used his daughter Tiffany’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American[25], as a surrogate. The mayors of Hamtramck and Dearborn Heights endorsed Trump[26].
Did it swing Michigan?
The returns from municipalities with significant Arab American populations show how much they shifted Trump’s way.
In 2020, the Biden-Harris team had won almost 69% of the vote in Dearborn[28]. In 2024, Harris got just 36% – with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, taking 18%[29].
In Dearborn Heights, Trump defeated Harris by 44% to 38%[30]. Stein received 15% of the vote.
In just these[31] two communities[32], plus Hamtramck[33], Trump received 50,332 votes.
Trump ran a strong campaign in 2024, with almost 2,500 counties nationwide, including 82 of 83 in Michigan, shifting more Republican. He won all of the seven swing states.
In the swing state of Michigan, Harris’ inability to win over Arab Americans played a small but significant role in allowing Trump to win by 80,618 votes.
References
- ^ Donald Trump won Michigan (apnews.com)
- ^ his decisive victory (apnews.com)
- ^ narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Trump lost the state (www.freep.com)
- ^ the largest population of Arabs, Muslims and Palestinians (worldpopulationreview.com)
- ^ Listen to Michigan (www.listentomichigan.com)
- ^ its conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip (theconversation.com)
- ^ 100,000 Michigan voters picked “uncommitted” (theconversation.com)
- ^ studies campaigns, elections and polling (rowman.com)
- ^ Clinton campaign’s lack of attention (www.politico.com)
- ^ in terms of visits and advertising (www.theatlantic.com)
- ^ advertising more heavily and making more visits to the state (www.freep.com)
- ^ low approval ratings (www.realclearpolitics.com)
- ^ lingering economic pain related to the COVID-19 shutdowns (www.cbpp.org)
- ^ the unemployment rate had come down significantly (www.bls.gov)
- ^ a violent attack on Israel (themaneater.com)
- ^ Biden expressed strong support for Benjamin Netanyahu (www.whitehouse.gov)
- ^ aggressive response in Gaza (www.aljazeera.com)
- ^ the number of civilian casualties grew dramatically (www.ohchr.org)
- ^ national Uncommitted Movement (www.uncommittedmovement.com)
- ^ no public effort to engage with Arab American leaders (apnews.com)
- ^ Kamala Harris campaign did some outreach (www.npr.org)
- ^ Leaders of some Arab American groups (theconversation.com)
- ^ Trump made multiple visits (www.bbc.com)
- ^ Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American (www.trtworld.com)
- ^ mayors of Hamtramck and Dearborn Heights endorsed Trump (www.bbc.com)
- ^ AP Photo/David Goldman (newsroom.ap.org)
- ^ 69% of the vote in Dearborn (www.freep.com)
- ^ taking 18% (www.voanews.com)
- ^ Trump defeated Harris by 44% to 38% (www.detroitnews.com)
- ^ these (dearborn.gov)
- ^ two communities (www.dearbornheightsmi.gov)
- ^ plus Hamtramck (hamtramckcity.gov)
Authors: Michael Traugott, Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
