2024’s quick win for Trump will go down in the history books alongside 1964 and 1980 Election Day landslides
- Written by Shannon Bow O'Brien, Associate Professor of Instruction, The University of Texas at Austin
Election nights are always simultaneous moments of triumph and tragedy. One group of voters’ dreams are dashed, while another set of voters see their hopes realized.
Every election is also unique. The United States has had some critical presidential elections that reshaped the way Americans think about politics. Former President Donald Trump quickly took the lead on election night on Nov. 5, 2024, including in all of the swing states – like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona – that either presidential candidate needed to win.
By the early morning, Trump crossed the threshold of 270 electoral votes, securing him a definite win[1] of both the Electoral College and the popular vote[2], and cementing his remaking of American politics and the Republican Party.
Almost every election is worth reading about at some point. There are some big wins, nail-biters and monumental losses that stand out.
Big winners
The 1964 and 1984 presidential elections stand out as quick, overwhelming wins.
President John F. Kennedy’s November 1963 assassination[3] helped set the scene for the 1964 election[4]. Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson immediately ascended to the presidency – and then ran for president with less than a full calendar year as the sitting chief executive.
Johnson’s race against Arizona Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater[5] was fierce. The country faced mounting political tensions with the Soviet Union. Johnson’s famous “Daisy Girl”[6] political ad[7] all but accused Goldwater of potentially launching a nuclear war. And Goldwater, meanwhile, criticized Johnson as being soft on communism[8].
The New York Times called the election[9] for Johnson by 9 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on election night – though Goldwater waited[10] until the next day to concede[11].
Goldwater won only six states[12]: his home state of Arizona, as well as Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia.
Twenty years later, President Ronald Reagan ran for reelection in 1984 against Walter Mondale[13], who previously served as vice president to Jimmy Carter.
Reagan had survived an assassination attempt[14] as president in March 1981 and was fairly popular[15] going into the 1984 election – with an added boost from a strong economy.
Reagan was also 73 years old in 1984, but his sense of humor about his age served him well. He joked about it during the October 1984 presidential debate, saying he wouldn’t exploit Mondale’s “youth and inexperience.”[16]
Reagan quickly won nearly every state[17], except Mondale’s home state of Minnesota and Washington, D.C.
Mondale conceded just after 11 p.m. EST on election night, while Reagan waited until after midnight to give his victory speech[18].
A nail-biter
On the other hand, the election of 2000 was a nail-biter that came down to the results of one county in Florida.
Republican George W. Bush, then governor of Texas, and Democrat Al Gore, who was the sitting vice president, were in a very tight race[20]. Green Party politician Ralph Nader was also running as a third-party candidate, drawing votes from the far left[21].
On election night, Nov. 7, 2000, the vote tally in many states was close – but the closest was in Florida.
All of the major news outlets initially said on the night of the election[22] that Gore had won Florida’s 25 electoral votes, securing him the election.
But as more county tallies came in, the results kept getting closer – and the media outlets shifted, saying that the Florida race was actually undecided.
The final decision would be determined by the vote from Palm Beach County, Florida. Palm Beach County then missed the deadline for counties to certify their votes to the state[23], two weeks after the election[24].
This county used an older voting system[25], the butterfly ballot, to conduct elections.
Voters punched out what looked like a small piece of confetti, called a chad, to indicate their choice on paper ballots. Incomplete punches were called hanging chads, and voter intention became a huge question. There was a lot of legal wrangling[26], and Republicans eventually appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court in December to halt the ongoing recount.
The Supreme Court, in a split decision,[27] determined that time had run out for additional recounts[28] and handed Florida to Bush, who won the state by a margin of 537 votes on Dec. 12, 2000.
An election worker and election observer inspect ballots on Nov. 19, 2000, during a hand recount of the 2000 presidential election in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Robert King/Newsmakers[29]
A wild card
Theodore Roosevelt suddenly became president in September 1901 when the sitting president, William McKinley, was assassinated. Roosevelt was reelected in 1904 but decided he wanted to do other things at the end of that four-year term, such as go on a safari[30]. He handpicked his secretary of war, William Howard Taft, as his successor, and Taft won the presidential election in 1908.
But Taft had a very different vision[31] of the presidency, leaving Roosevelt feeling deceived. Roosevelt decided he wanted the presidency back.
A section of the Republican Party broke off and created a separate political party, called the Progressive Party. Roosevelt ran on the Progressive Party ticket in the 1912 election[32], but dueling support for Taft and Roosevelt split the vote, allowing for Democratic Party candidate Woodrow Wilson to win.
Wilson received more than 6 million popular votes[33], Roosevelt got about 4 million, and Taft won about 3.5 million. Roosevelt won a moral victory by beating Taft, but his party lost the presidency.
Nov. 5, 2024
Every election night is different. Each one has nuances, excitement and surprises. Many observers were expecting election night 2024 to be a long one, but it turned out to be a decisive victory for Trump. Historians of the future will decide what kind of turning point this marked for the country.
References
- ^ securing him a definite win (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ both the Electoral College and the popular vote (ktla.com)
- ^ November 1963 assassination (www.jfklibrary.org)
- ^ 1964 election (www.britannica.com)
- ^ Arizona Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater (www.senate.gov)
- ^ famous “Daisy Girl” (www.history.com)
- ^ political ad (www.livingroomcandidate.org)
- ^ soft on communism (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ called the election (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Goldwater waited (www.presidency.ucsb.edu)
- ^ next day to concede (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ won only six states (www.presidency.ucsb.edu)
- ^ Walter Mondale (www.britannica.com)
- ^ survived an assassination attempt (www.reaganlibrary.gov)
- ^ fairly popular (www.presidency.ucsb.edu)
- ^ exploit Mondale’s “youth and inexperience.” (www.youtube.com)
- ^ won nearly every state (www.presidency.ucsb.edu)
- ^ give his victory speech (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Diana Walker/Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ very tight race (www.history.com)
- ^ drawing votes from the far left (www.cbsnews.com)
- ^ said on the night of the election (www.npr.org)
- ^ deadline for counties to certify their votes to the state (www.ncsl.org)
- ^ two weeks after the election (www.miamiherald.com)
- ^ older voting system (www.palmbeachpost.com)
- ^ lot of legal wrangling (guides.law.stanford.edu)
- ^ Supreme Court, in a split decision, (supreme.justia.com)
- ^ time had run out for additional recounts (www.history.com)
- ^ Robert King/Newsmakers (www.gettyimages.com)
- ^ such as go on a safari (www.whitehousehistory.org)
- ^ had a very different vision (www.gilderlehrman.org)
- ^ 1912 election (www.britannica.com)
- ^ received more than 6 million popular votes (www.270towin.com)
Authors: Shannon Bow O'Brien, Associate Professor of Instruction, The University of Texas at Austin
