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  • Written by Steven R. Fassnacht, Professor of Snow Hydrology, Colorado State University
How climate change threatens the Winter Olympics' future

The Winter Olympics is an adrenaline rush as athletes fly down snow-covered ski slopes, luge tracks and over the ice at breakneck speeds and with grace.

When the first Olympic Winter Games[1] were held in Chamonix, France, in 1924, all 16 events took place outdoors. The athletes relied on natural snow for ski runs and freezing temperatures for ice rinks.

Two skaters on ice outside with mountains in the background. They are posing as if gliding together.
Sonja Henie, left, and Gilles Grafstrom at the Olympic Winter Games in Chamonix, France, in 1924. The Associated Press[2]

Nearly a century later, in 2022, the world watched skiers race down runs of 100% human-made snow near Beijing. Luge tracks and ski jumps have their own refrigeration, and four of the original events are now held indoors: Figure skaters, speed skaters, curlers and hockey teams all compete in climate-controlled buildings.

Innovation made the 2022 Winter Games possible in Beijing, but snowmaking can go only so far in a warming climate.

As global temperatures rise, what will the Winter Games look like in another century? Will they even be possible?

Former host cities that would be too warm

The average daytime temperature[3] of Winter Games host cities in February has increased steadily since those first events in Chamonix, rising from 33 degrees Fahrenheit (0.4 C) in the 1920s-1950s to 46 F (7.8 C) in the early 21st century.

In a recent study, scientists looked at the venues of 19 past Winter Olympics[4] to see how each might hold up under future climate change.

A cross-country skier falls in front of another during a race. The second skier has his mouth open as if shouting.
Human-made snow was used to augment trails at the Sochi Games in 2014. Some athletes complained that it made the trails icier and more dangerous. AP Photo/Dmitry Lovetsky[5]

They found that by midcentury, four former host cities – Chamonix; Sochi, Russia; Grenoble, France; and Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – would no longer have a reliable climate for hosting the Games, even under the United Nations’ best-case scenario for climate change, which assumes the world quickly cuts its greenhouse gas emissions. If the world continues burning fossil fuels at high rates, Squaw Valley, California, and Vancouver, British Columbia, would join that list.

By the 2080s, the scientists found, the climates in 11 of 21 former venues would be too unreliable to host the Winter Olympics’ outdoor events; among them were Turin, Italy; Nagano, Japan; and Innsbruck, Austria.

These venues would all be susceptible to problems associated with snowmaking.

Ideal snowmaking conditions today require a dewpoint temperature[6] – the combination of coldness and humidity – of around 28 F (-2 C) or less[7]. More moisture in the air melts snow and ice at colder temperatures[8], which affects snow on ski slopes and ice on bobsled, skeleton and luge tracks.

Stark white lines etched on a swath of brown mountains delineate ski routes and bobsled course.
A satellite view clearly shows the absence of natural snow during the 2022 Winter Olympics. Beijing’s bid to host the Winter Games had explained how extensively it would rely on snowmaking. Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory[9]
A gondola passes by with dark ground below and white ski slopes behind it.
The finish area of the Alpine ski venue at the 2022 Winter Olympics was white because of artificially made snow. AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty[10]

As Colorado snow[11] and sustainability[12] scientists and avid skiers, we’ve been watching the developments and studying the climate impact on the mountains and winter sports we love.

Conditions vary by location and year to year

The Earth’s climate will be warmer[13] overall in the coming decades. Warmer air can mean more precipitation[14] in some areas. It can also mean more winter rain, particularly at lower elevations. Over the globe, snow has been covering less area[15].

However, local changes vary. For example, in northern Colorado, the amount of snow has decreased since the 1970s[16], but the decline has mostly been at higher elevations[17].

A future climate may also be more humid[18], which affects snowmaking[19] and could affect bobsled, luge and skeleton tracks.

Several barrels blow snow onto one ski run while skiers uses another.
Snowmaking machines spray artificially made snow on a ski slope during a test ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein[20]

Of the 15 Winter Games sports today[21], seven are affected by temperature and snow: alpine skiing, biathlon, cross-country skiing, freestyle skiing, Nordic combined, ski jumping and snowboarding. And three are affected by temperature and humidity: bobsled, luge and skeleton.

Technology also changes

Developments in technology have helped the Winter Games adapt[22] to some changes over the past century.

Hockey moved indoors, followed by skating. Luge and bobsled tracks were refrigerated in the 1960s[23]. The Lake Placid Winter Games in 1980[24] used snowmaking to augment natural snow on the ski slopes.

Today, initiatives are exploring ways to make skiing possible year-round with indoor skiing facilities[25]. Ski Dubai[26], open since 2005, has five ski runs on a hill the height of a 25-story building inside a resort attached to a shopping mall.

Two workers pack snow on an indoor ski slope with a sloped ceiling overhead.
Dubai has an indoor ski slope with multiple runs and a chairlift, all part of a shopping mall complex. AP Photo/Jon Gambrell[27]

But making snow and keeping it cold requires energy and water – and both become issues in a warming world. Water becomes more scarce in many areas. And energy, if it means more fossil fuel use, further contributes to climate change[28].

The International Olympic Committee recognizes[29] that the future climate will have a big impact on the Olympics, both winter and summer. It also recognizes the importance of ensuring the adaptations are sustainable[30].

The Winter Olympics could become limited to more northerly locations, like Calgary, Alberta[31], or be pushed to higher elevations[32].

Summer Games are feeling climate pressure, too

The Summer Games also face challenges. Hot temperatures and high humidity[33] can make competing in the summer difficult, but these sports have more flexibility than winter sports.

For example, changing the timing of typical summer events to another season can help alleviate excessive temperatures. The 2022 World Cup[34], normally a summer event, is scheduled for November so Qatar can host it.

What makes adaptation more difficult for the Winter Games is the necessity of snow or ice for all of the events.

A snowboarder with 'USA' on her gloves puts her arms out for balance on a run.
Climate change threatens the ideal environments for snowboarders, like U.S. Olympian Hailey Langland, competing here during the women’s snowboard big air final in Beijing. AP Photo/Jae C. Hong[35]

Future depends on responses to climate change

In uncertain times, the Olympics offer a way for the world to come together[36].

People are thrilled by the athletic feats[37], like Jean-Claude Killy winning all three Alpine skiing events in 1968, and stories of perseverance, like the 1988 Jamaican bobsled team[38] competing beyond all expectation.

The Winter Games’ outdoor sports may look very different in the future. How different will depend heavily on how countries respond[39] to climate change.

[Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week. Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter[40].]

References

  1. ^ first Olympic Winter Games (olympics.com)
  2. ^ The Associated Press (newsroom.ap.org)
  3. ^ average daytime temperature (doi.org)
  4. ^ looked at the venues of 19 past Winter Olympics (doi.org)
  5. ^ AP Photo/Dmitry Lovetsky (newsroom.ap.org)
  6. ^ dewpoint temperature (www.washingtonpost.com)
  7. ^ 28 F (-2 C) or less (www.tusseymountain.com)
  8. ^ colder temperatures (iahs.info)
  9. ^ Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory (earthobservatory.nasa.gov)
  10. ^ AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty (newsroom.ap.org)
  11. ^ Colorado snow (scholar.google.com)
  12. ^ and sustainability (warnercnr.colostate.edu)
  13. ^ climate will be warmer (www.ipcc.ch)
  14. ^ more precipitation (theconversation.com)
  15. ^ covering less area (doi.org)
  16. ^ decreased since the 1970s (doi.org)
  17. ^ mostly been at higher elevations (doi.org)
  18. ^ more humid (doi.org)
  19. ^ affects snowmaking (theconversation.com)
  20. ^ AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein (newsroom.ap.org)
  21. ^ 15 Winter Games sports today (olympics.com)
  22. ^ helped the Winter Games adapt (doi.org)
  23. ^ in the 1960s (www.ibsf.org)
  24. ^ Lake Placid Winter Games in 1980 (olympics.com)
  25. ^ indoor skiing facilities (alpine-x.com)
  26. ^ Ski Dubai (www.skidxb.com)
  27. ^ AP Photo/Jon Gambrell (newsroom.ap.org)
  28. ^ contributes to climate change (ugc.berkeley.edu)
  29. ^ International Olympic Committee recognizes (olympics.com)
  30. ^ are sustainable (olympics.com)
  31. ^ like Calgary, Alberta (olympics.com)
  32. ^ higher elevations (doi.org)
  33. ^ Hot temperatures and high humidity (www.bbc.com)
  34. ^ 2022 World Cup (www.espn.com)
  35. ^ AP Photo/Jae C. Hong (newsroom.ap.org)
  36. ^ Olympics offer a way for the world to come together (doi.org)
  37. ^ athletic feats (doi.org)
  38. ^ Jamaican bobsled team (www.youtube.com)
  39. ^ depend heavily on how countries respond (www.imperial.ac.uk)
  40. ^ Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter (memberservices.theconversation.com)

Authors: Steven R. Fassnacht, Professor of Snow Hydrology, Colorado State University

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