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  • Written by Jamie Peeler, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Montana
The US is spending billions to reduce forest fire risks – we mapped the hot spots where treatment offers the biggest payoff for people and climate

The U.S. government is investing over[1] US$7 billion[2] in the coming years to try to manage the nation’s escalating[3] wildfire crisis[4]. That includes a commitment to treat at least 60[5] million acres[6] in the next 10 years by expanding forest-thinning efforts and controlled burns.

While that sounds like a lot – 60 million acres is about the size of Wyoming – it’s nowhere close to enough to treat every acre that needs it.

So, where can taxpayers get the biggest bang for the buck?

I’m a fire ecologist[7] in Montana. In a new study[8], my colleagues and I mapped out where forest treatments can do the most to simultaneously protect communities – by preventing wildfires from turning into disasters[9] – and also protect the forests and the climate we rely on, by keeping carbon out of the atmosphere and stored in healthy soils and trees[10].

Wildfires are becoming more severe

Forests and fires have always been intertwined in the West[11]. Fires in dry conifer forests like ponderosa pine historically occurred frequently, clearing out brush and small trees in the understory. As a result, fires had less fuel and tended to stay on the ground, doing less damage to the larger, older trees.

That changed after European colonization of North America ushered in a legacy of fire suppression that wouldn’t be questioned until the 1960s[12]. In the absence of fire, dry conifer forests accumulated excess fuel[13] that now allows wildfires to climb into the canopy.

A firefighter looks up with a line of low-burning fire behind him on the ground beneath trees.
A firefighter sets a controlled burn to remove undergrowth that could fuel a fire. Don Bartletti/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images[14]

In addition to excess fuels, all forest types are experiencing hotter[15] and drier wildfire seasons[16] due to climate change. And the expanding number of people[17] living in and near forests, and their roads and power lines, increases the risk of wildfire ignitions[18]. Collectively, it’s not surprising that more area is burning at high severity[19] in the West[20].

In response, the U.S. is facing increasing pressure to protect communities from high-severity wildfire, while also reducing the country’s impact on climate change – including from carbon released by wildfires.

High-risk areas that meet both goals

To find the locations with greatest potential payoff for forest treatments, we started by identifying areas where forest carbon is more likely to be lost to wildfires compared to other locations.

In each area, we considered the likelihood of wildfire and calculated how much forest carbon might be lost through smoke emissions[21] and decomposition[22]. Additionally, we evaluated whether the conditions in burned areas would be[23] too[24] stressful[25] for trees to regenerate over time. When forests regrow, they absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and lock it away in their wood, eventually making up for the carbon lost in the fire.

In particular, we found that forests in California, New Mexico and Arizona were more likely to lose a large portion of their carbon in a wildfire and also have a tough time regenerating because of stressful conditions.

A map of the western U.S. shows areas where protecting human communities and protecting carbon storage overlap, including Flagstaff, Ariz.; Placerville, Calif.; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Hamilton, Mont.; Taos, N.M.; and Medford, Ore.
Areas with high potential for protecting both human communities and carbon storage. Jamie Peeler, CC BY-ND[26][27]

When we compared those areas to previously[28] published[29] maps[30] detailing high wildfire risk to communities, we found several hot spots for simultaneously reducing wildfire risk to communities and stabilizing stored carbon.

Forests surrounding Flagstaff, Arizona; Placerville, California; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Hamilton, Montana; Taos, New Mexico; Medford, Oregon, and Wenatchee, Washington, are among locations with good opportunities for likely achieving both goals.

Why treating forests is good for carbon, too

Forest thinning is like weeding a garden: It removes brush and small trees[31] in dry conifer forests to leave behind space for the larger, older trees to continue growing.

Repeatedly applying controlled burns maintains that openness and reduces fuels in the understory. Consequently, when a wildfire occurs in a thinned and burned area, flames are more likely to remain on the ground[32] and out of the canopy.

Although forest thinning and controlled burning remove carbon in the short term, living trees[33] are more likely to survive[34] a subsequent wildfire. In the long term, that’s a good outcome for carbon and climate. Living trees continue to absorb and store carbon from the atmosphere, as well as provide critical seeds and shade for seedlings to regenerate[35], grow and recover the carbon lost to fires.

Of course, forest thinning and controlled burning are not a silver bullet. Using the National Fire Protection Agency’s Firewise program’s advice[36] and recommended materials[37] will help people make their properties less vulnerable to wildfires. Allowing wildfires to burn under safe conditions[38] can reduce future wildfire severity. And the world needs to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels to curb climate change impacts[39] that increase the risk of wildfires becoming community disasters.

References

  1. ^ investing over (www.whitehouse.gov)
  2. ^ US$7 billion (www.usda.gov)
  3. ^ escalating (doi.org)
  4. ^ wildfire crisis (doi.org)
  5. ^ treat at least 60 (www.fs.usda.gov)
  6. ^ million acres (www.doi.gov)
  7. ^ fire ecologist (scholar.google.com)
  8. ^ new study (doi.org)
  9. ^ turning into disasters (headwaterseconomics.org)
  10. ^ stored in healthy soils and trees (doi.org)
  11. ^ intertwined in the West (doi.org)
  12. ^ wouldn’t be questioned until the 1960s (doi.org)
  13. ^ accumulated excess fuel (doi.org)
  14. ^ Don Bartletti/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
  15. ^ experiencing hotter (doi.org)
  16. ^ drier wildfire seasons (doi.org)
  17. ^ number of people (doi.org)
  18. ^ wildfire ignitions (doi.org)
  19. ^ more area is burning at high severity (doi.org)
  20. ^ in the West (doi.org)
  21. ^ smoke emissions (doi.org)
  22. ^ decomposition (doi.org)
  23. ^ burned areas would be (doi.org)
  24. ^ too (doi.org)
  25. ^ stressful (doi.org)
  26. ^ Jamie Peeler (doi.org)
  27. ^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)
  28. ^ previously (doi.org)
  29. ^ published (www.fs.usda.gov)
  30. ^ maps (www.fs.usda.gov)
  31. ^ removes brush and small trees (www.hcn.org)
  32. ^ more likely to remain on the ground (doi.org)
  33. ^ living trees (doi.org)
  34. ^ likely to survive (doi.org)
  35. ^ for seedlings to regenerate (doi.org)
  36. ^ Firewise program’s advice (nfpa.org)
  37. ^ recommended materials (headwaterseconomics.org)
  38. ^ wildfires to burn under safe conditions (doi.org)
  39. ^ climate change impacts (www.ipcc.ch)

Authors: Jamie Peeler, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Montana

Read more https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-spending-billions-to-reduce-forest-fire-risks-we-mapped-the-hot-spots-where-treatment-offers-the-biggest-payoff-for-people-and-climate-210051

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